[圣诞特刊]The full moon and motorcycle related mortality: population based double control study [满月与摩托车相关的死亡率：基于人口的双控制研究]

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BMJ 2017; 359 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.j5367 (Published 11 December 2017)
Cite this as: BMJ 2017;359:j5367

Authors
Donald A Redelmeier, Eldar Shafir

Abstract
Objective To test whether a full moon contributes to motorcycle related deaths.

Design Population based, individual level, double control, cross sectional analysis.

Setting Nighttime (4 pm to 8 am), United States.

Participants 13 029 motorcycle fatalities throughout the United States, 1975 to 2014 (40 years).

Main outcome measure Motorcycle fatalities during a full moon.

Results 13 029 motorcyclists were in fatal crashes during 1482 relevant nights. The typical motorcyclist was a middle aged man (mean age 32 years) riding a street motorcycle with a large engine in a rural location who experienced a head-on frontal impact and was not wearing a helmet. 4494 fatal crashes occurred on the 494 nights with a full moon (9.10/night) and 8535 on the 988 control nights without a full moon (8.64/night). Comparisons yielded a relative risk of 1.05 associated with the full moon (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.09, P=0.005), a conditional odds ratio of 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.37, P<0.001), and an absolute increase of 226 additional deaths over the study interval. The increase extended to diverse types of motorcyclists, vehicles, and crashes; was accentuated during a supermoon; and replicated in analyses from the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

Conclusion The full moon is associated with an increased risk of fatal motorcycle crashes, although potential confounders cannot be excluded. An awareness of the risk might encourage motorcyclists to ride with extra care during a full moon and, more generally, to appreciate the power of seemingly minor distractions at all times.